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Traditional Risk Management is based on group of ratios, expressing different aspects of time series. But it is not sufficient in case of fraud, manipulation or potential failure. There was a need to develop another system to identify potentially suspicious investments.

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Our methods are based on practice.Finding applications for developed theories is wrong.


We do our best to find which models work in real terms.


We reveal where people are making basic errors and we propose how to avoid them.


We answer the question which model to use and how to detect suspicious investments.

PlutosWeb - the easiest way to check the investment risk. First   Red Flag warning system for fraud detection, bankruptcy and failure anticipation.

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Optimism Bias

The optimism bias (also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism) is a bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others. There are four factors that cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood. The optimistic bias is seen in a number of situations. For example: people believing that they are less at risk of being a crime victim, smokers believing that they are less likely to contract lung cancer or disease than other smokers, first-time bungee jumpers believing that they are less at risk of an injury than other jumpers, or traders who think they are less exposed to losses in the markets. Although the optimism bias occurs for both positive events, such as believing oneself to be more financially successful than others and negative events, such as being less likely to have a drinking problem, there is more research and evidence suggesting that the bias is stronger for negative events. Different consequences result from these two types of events: positive events often lead to feelings of well being and self-esteem, while negative events lead to consequences involving more risk, such as engaging in risky behaviors and not taking precautionary measures for safety.[source: Wikipedia]

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Delayed gratification

Delayed gratification, or deferred gratification, is the ability to resist the temptation for an immediate reward and wait for a later reward. Generally, delayed gratification is associated with resisting a smaller but more immediate reward in order to receive a larger or more enduring reward later. A growing body of literature has linked the ability to delay gratification to a host of other positive outcomes, including academic success, physical health, psychological health, and social competence. Walter Mischel has led the research on delayed gratification, most notably the Stanford marshmallow experiment, which shed light on the long-term results of a person's ability to delay gratification. A person's ability to delay gratification relates to other similar skills such as patience, impulse control, self-control and willpower, all of which are involved in self-regulation. Broadly, self-regulation encompasses a person's capacity to adapt the self as necessary to meet demands of the environment. Delaying gratification is the reverse of delay discounting, which is "the preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger but delayed rewards" and refers to the "fact that the subjective value of reward decreases with increasing delay to its receipt." It is theorized that the ability to delay rewards is under the control of the Cognitive Affective Processing System (CAPS).[source: Wikipedia]

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Presentation1 Analysing numbers - simple

Presentation2 Analysing numbers - more advanced

Presentation3 Analysing numbers - most advanced. Music by Hans Zimmer;Ladd McIntosh;Jack Smalley;Elizabeth Finch;Walt Fowler;Bruce Fowler;Lisa Gerrard;Yvonne S. Moriarty

Presentation4 Are we safe ? - SAFETY-NET presents

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